Media and Publishing Trends: Predictions for 2009

I was at a publishing expo in London last week attending several seminars, debates and talks by various industry players. The invited speakers were largely split into two distinct groups when it came to predictions of what media publishers can expect to see in 2009. And it was not all doom and gloom.

Judging by the buzzwords alone, the overwhelming feeling among attending publishers was that — despite agreement that the end of print was not arriving anytime soon — they were mostly of the opinion that the future lies in the web. They argued that there was a distinction between normal websites and what they tried to describe as the future: sites featuring “e-letters”, “digimags”, “online page-turning capabilities”,  “e-zines” and “geo-apps and geo-wikis” etc. There was also much talk of readers and views being brought together into  “communities” and “congregations” through “emotional connections” fostered by media publishers.

Paul Kurzeja, Creative Director at Redwood Group, spoke of how the Information Age has entered a third era. Long gone are the days of the church having control of information dissemination, and long gone is the era of professional media dictating information under the one-to-many model. We now live in an age where consumers now dictate information flows. “The end of control is everywhere,” he said. For established media,  having a foothold in social media is no longer a choice, but a necessity. The editors of the former old media were used to creating and commissioning content, but now they had to adapt and instead learn to co-create and curate to survive. Speaking as a creative, he believed that Art Directors “must evolve to become multichannel experience directors”.

From a business view, he stated that companies have to understand that, “where attention flows, money flows”. Business must follow that attention to profit. He made five predictions of short-term media trends for 2009. First is an explosion in “content on TV” in the form of internet widgets on our televisions, similar to market tickers at the bottom of rolling-news channels but resembling desktop widgets. Second is continued growth of online interactive e-zines, but stressed that these were not mere “magazines” because of their interactive nature and “rich” content. Third is that there will be more consumption of “content on the go” in the form of “content in our pocket” accessed through our mobile devices. He also foresaw growth of “geo-apps” and “location media” powered by GPS functions in our handsets, as well as opportunities for providers of “contextual content”, whereby content is provided as a service that knows what people like and letting them know where they can find it.

Robert McCaffrey of PRo Publications spoke more directly about his views on where publishers should be focusing their attentions businesswise. His comparison of the old and new business models for publishers was that they essentially remain the same, with the only difference being the delivery method of content was no longer just on expensive “dead trees”.  The immediacy of the web means that a fundamental rethink is required about what is and isn’t to be printed on paper.

The old days of publishing news in print that is effectively a week or a month old by the time it is published cannot continue. He believes that publishers must exploit the advantages of both mediums separately, but side by side. He stated that consumers now expect news to be free and instant, and they will get it online. In business, it’s no good reading about what your competitors are doing a month or so after the fact. Therefore the online domain should be the natural preserve of news. Publishing and media businesses can look for new revenue online while still being able to afford to give away free news, while at the same time building a valuable database-profile of their customers and exploiting those.

He does not dismiss print media altogether, McCaffrey does predict a vast reduction in overall print volumes and indeed in the number of printing firms. Printed publications, once divested of the burden of publishing news, remains a valuable tool for delivering content of real value that people will pay for. Today print is the perfect vehicle to deliver aggregated analysis, depth, trends and comment.

While the larger, established media players quake in their boot about how to maintain profits and stay dominant, abundant optimism and supreme confidence was found elsewhere. Danny Miller and Matt Bochenski, the young duo behind indie film magazine Little White Lies, predicted 2009 to be “the year of the independent publisher”. They see small publishers as being better placed to survive harsh economic times simply because they small and flexible; with everything to gain and nothing to lose.

“Indies don’t fear recession like big companies, they have nothing to fear,” said Miller. “This is our chance, our time to shine. We can do the work just as well, but more cheaply. That’s ruthless, but it’s also good business. So there is a lot of optimism around.”

Perhaps surprisingly, the two young publishers did not agree with the consensus view that print is dead. In fact, they believe that the younger generations are still very much committed to print. They saw the problem as being, not a crisis of old versus new media, but one of “dross” versus “quality”. As they see it, large companies are only want to monetise their sites, turning them into “cash cows” for advertising. This may be what is driving readers away.

Small independents, they believe, simply have more invested in their product – an emotion involvement that comes through in the relationships with their readers. This authenticity can be used to great advantage. Rather than ditching print, they are convinced that both magazine and website are integral parts or any publishing venture, but that the print product must remain at the forefront. When asked what it was about print they responded that it fulfilled people’s desire to collect, to hold something tangible in your hand, to smell and feel the publication as well as being something to keep on your shelf.

While established media players all head for the exits towards the online world in the lemming-like belief that this is what the “younger generation” wants, Danny Miller related an anecdote from his own experience. “Of all the people we’ve met and talked about collaborative projects, no one under 28 has come up and said ‘I want to start a website’.”

“The web is easy,” Miller said. “Print is credibility”.

About the Author

The author is the editor and founder of www.whichenglish.com.

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